Regulation and Trust: 3-Month Follow-up Study on COVID-19 Mortality in 25 European Countries.
Regulation and Trust: 3-Month Follow-up Study on COVID-19 Mortality in 25 European Countries.
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DOI：
10.2196/19218
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发表时间：
2020-04-24
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Koivula, Aki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oksanen, Atte;Kaakinen, Markus;Koivula, Aki
背景：2020年，新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的爆发极大地改变了社会。自2月底以来，欧洲受到COVID-19的打击尤为严重，但在病毒传播和采取措施阻止病毒方面存在主要国家差异。社会心理因素，如制度信任可能是重要的，在了解疫情的发展。目的：本研究的目的是检查国家的变化COVID-19死亡率在欧洲通过分析社会风险因素解释的疾病，限制和控制措施，和制度信任。方法：本研究基于对25个欧洲国家（N= 47，802）的欧洲社会调查数据的背景分析。多水平混合效应线性回归模型关注COVID-19疫情的84天（2020年1月22日至4月14日），并对每日COVID-19死亡率进行建模。结果：COVID-19疫情在世界各地的传播速度很快，但各国之间的COVID-19死亡率存在显著差异。感知的社交能力预测了更高的COVID-19死亡率。25个国家对危机的反应时间存在重大差异。对危机的迟来反应预示了后来的死亡率数字。机构信任与较低的COVID-19死亡率相关。结论：分析表明了社会和社会心理因素在COVID-19疫情传播中的重要性。通过考虑多个角度，这项研究表明，欧洲各国的差异很大，这将对各国如何科普未来几个月的持续危机产生影响。结果表明，及时限制和与人们合作的重要性。
BACKGROUND: The outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has dramatically changed societies in 2020. Since the end of February, Europe has been hit particularly hard by COVID-19, but there are major country differences in both the spread of the virus and measures taken to stop the virus. Social psychological factors such as institutional trust could be important in understanding the development of the epidemic.OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine country variations of COVID-19 mortality in Europe by analyzing social risk factors explaining the spread of the disease, restrictions and control measures, and institutional trust.METHODS: The present study was based on a background analysis of European Social Survey data on 25 European countries (N=47,802). Multilevel mixed effects linear regression models focused on 84 days of the COVID-19 epidemic (January 22 to April 14, 2020) and modelled the daily COVID-19 mortality. Analysis focused on the impact of social relations, restrictions, and institutional trust within each country.RESULTS: The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has been fast everywhere, but the findings revealed significant differences between countries in COVID-19 mortality. Perceived sociability predicted higher COVID-19 mortality. Major differences between the 25 countries were found in reaction times to the crisis. Late reaction to the crisis predicted later mortality figures. Institutional trust was associated with lower COVID-19 mortality.CONCLUSIONS: The analyses demonstrated the importance of societal and social psychological factors in the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. By considering multiple perspectives, this study showed that country differences in Europe are major, and this will have an impact on how countries will cope with the ongoing crisis in the following months. The results indicated the importance of timely restrictions and cooperation with people.