Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960-2006)
Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern Spain (1960-2006)
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-11-2583-2011
复制
发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
El Kenawy, A.;Lopez-Moreno, J. I.;Vicente-Serrano, S. M.
研究了西班牙东北部极端温度事件的时空特征。该分析基于1960 - 2006年128个观测站的长期、高质量、均匀的日最高和最低气温。共使用21个指数来评估日温度分布的冷尾和热尾的变化。极端温度趋势的存在是通过Mann-Kendall检验来评估的。然而，采用自相关函数（ACF）和自举方法来解释序列相关和相互关系对趋势评估的影响。总的来说，观测到的变化在极端炎热地区比在极端寒冷地区更为普遍。这一发现在很大程度上与过去几十年平均最高温度的上升有关。结果表明，大多数极端高温的频率和强度显著增加。暖夜（TN90p: 3.3天10年（-1））、暖日（TX90p: 2.7天10年（-1））、热带夜（TR20: 0.6天10年（-1））和年最高气温（TXx: 0.27℃10年（-1））在47 a期间有所增加。与极端低温相关的大部分指数（如冷日（TX10p）、冷夜（TN10p）、极冷日（TN1p）和霜冻日（FD0））呈下降趋势，但无统计学意义。虽然没有证据表明极端寒冷有长期趋势，但已注意到显著的年代际变化。温度变化指数（如日较差（DTR）和生长季节长度（GSL））几乎没有显著的变化趋势。从空间上看，地中海和坎塔布连海沿岸地区比大陆地区升温更强。鉴于只有少数早期研究分析了整个伊比利亚半岛在精细空间分辨率下观测到的极端温度变化，这项工作的结果可以提高我们对极端温度气候学的理解。此外，这些发现可能具有不同的水文、生态和农业意义（例如作物产量、能源消耗、土地利用规划和水资源管理）。
Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in northeastern Spain have been investigated. The analysis is based on long-term, high-quality, and homogenous daily maximum and minimum temperature of 128 observatories spanning the period from 1960 to 2006. A total of 21 indices were used to assess changes in both the cold and hot tails of the daily temperature distributions. The presence of trends in temperature extremes was assessed by means of the Mann-Kendall test. However, the autocorrelation function (ACF) and a bootstrap methodology were used to account for the influence of serial correlation and cross-correlation on the trend assessment. In general, the observed changes are more prevalent in hot extremes than in cold extremes. This finding can largely be linked to the increase found in the mean maximum temperature during the last few decades. The results indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of most of the hot temperature extremes. An increase in warm nights (TN90p: 3.3 days decade(-1)), warm days (TX90p: 2.7 days decade(-1)), tropical nights (TR20: 0.6 days decade(-1)) and the annual high maximum temperature (TXx: 0.27 degrees C decade(-1)) was detected in the 47-yr period. In contrast, most of the indices related to cold temperature extremes (e. g. cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), very cold days (TN1p), and frost days (FD0)) demonstrated a decreasing but statistically insignificant trend. Although there is no evidence of a long-term trend in cold extremes, significant interdecadal variations were noted. Almost no significant trends in temperature variability indices (e. g. diurnal temperature range (DTR) and growing season length (GSL)) are detected. Spatially, the coastal areas along the Mediterranean Sea and the Cantabrian Sea experienced stronger warming compared with mainland areas. Given that only few earlier studies analyzed observed changes in temperature extremes at fine spatial resolution across the Iberian Peninsula, the results of this work can improve our understanding of climatology of temperature extremes. Also, these findings can have different hydrological, ecological and agricultural implications (e. g. crop yields, energy consumption, land use planning and water resources management).