Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model
Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-018-4096-4
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Fowler, Hayley J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chan, Steven C.;Kahana, Ron;Fowler, Hayley J.
英国气象局此前曾在英国南部进行过允许对流的气候模拟（Kendon等人，Nat Clim Change 4：570-576，2014）。在英国南部模拟之后，使用相同的模型配置进行了一组新的英国北方模拟。在这里，我们提出了这些新的模拟的平均和极端降水预测。相对于英国南部，英国北方的预测显示，在1.5公里的对流允许和12公里的对流参数化模拟返回水平和极端降水强度的夏季增加更大，但这种增加是对夏季平均降水量和降水频率大幅下降的背景。与英国南部类似，预计的变化取决于模型分辨率，对流允许模拟项目的强度更大。冬季，回报水平的增幅略低于英国南部。模型偏差的分析突出了在模拟高地形的昼夜周期、对域大小和驱动GCM偏差的敏感性以及雷达降水观测的质量问题方面的挑战，这些问题与更广泛的区域气候建模界有关。
The UK Met Office has previously conducted convection-permitting climate simulations over the southern UK (Kendon et al. in Nat Clim Change 4:570-576, 2014). The southern UK simulations have been followed up by a new set of northern UK simulations using the same model configuration. Here we present the mean and extreme precipitation projections from these new simulations. Relative to the southern UK, the northern UK projections show a greater summertime increase of return levels and extreme precipitation intensity in both 1.5 km convection-permitting and 12 km convection-parameterised simulations, but this increase is against a backdrop of large decreases in summertime mean precipitation and precipitation frequency. Similar to the southern UK, projected change is model resolution dependent and the convection-permitting simulation projects a larger intensification. For winter, return level increases are somewhat lower than for the southern UK. Analysis of model biases highlight challenges in simulating the diurnal cycle over high terrain, sensitivity to domain size and driving-GCM biases, and quality issues of radar precipitation observations, which are relevant to the wider regional climate modelling community.