Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels
Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1812593116
复制
发表时间：
2019-05-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Alkema, Leontine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chao, Fengqing;Gerland, Patrick;Alkema, Leontine
在过去几十年里，世界部分地区的出生性别比失衡是性别选择性堕胎的直接后果，这是由重男轻女、产前性别确定技术和生育率下降共同造成的。由于未知的SRB参考水平和与SRB观测相关的不确定性，SRB不平衡程度的估计是复杂的。需要可重复的方法来构建具有不确定性的SRB估计，并评估性别选择性流产导致的SRB膨胀。我们编制了一个广泛的数据库，包括生命登记系统、人口普查和调查，其中包含10,835项观察，以及来自202个国家的16,602个国家/年的信息。我们为1950年至2017年所有国家的SRB估计开发了贝叶斯方法。我们建立了SRB区域和国家参考水平、国家参考水平周围的波动以及通货膨胀的模型。估计的区域参考水平范围从撒哈拉以南非洲的1.031（95%不确定区间[1.027;1.036]）到1.063 [1.055；1.072]东南亚，1.063 [1.054]；1.072]和1.067 [1.058；[01:77]在大洋洲。我们确定了12个国家，在1970-2017年期间有强有力的统计证据表明SRB失衡，导致23.1 [19.0；全球有2830万女性新生儿失踪。这些失踪的女婴大多数在中国，有11.9 [8.5；1580万，印度为1060万；13.6]百万。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970-2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million.