Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?
Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?
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标准国际经济周期模型能否解释贸易与联动之间的关系？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.707046
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kose;Kei
最近的实证研究发现，贸易联系较强的国家对往往有更密切的商业周期。我们评估标准的国际商业周期框架是否可以复制这一直观的结果。我们采用了一个包含运输成本的三国模型。我们模拟了两种资产市场结构下，完全市场和国际金融自给自足的商品市场一体化的影响。我们的主要发现是，在两种资产市场结构下，模型可以为交易量更大的国家产生更强的相关性，但增加的相关性福尔斯远远低于实证结果。即使我们控制了大多数国家对相对于世界其他地区来说都很小的事实，该模型仍然存在不足。我们还进行了额外的模拟，考虑到增加与第三国的贸易或增加TFP冲击共动影响国家对的商业周期共动。这些模拟有助于突出可以缩小经验发现与模型预测之间的差距的渠道。
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.