Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa
Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa
复制标题
允许对流的区域气候变化模拟，以了解非洲的未来气候并为决策提供信息
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Senior C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Senior C
为了研究高分辨率和大气湿对流的显式表示对非洲现在和未来气候的影响，进行了泛非允许对流的区域气候模式模拟。这些独特的模拟使欧洲和非洲的气候科学家能够理解对流的表示在当代气候模型捕捉气候和气候变化的能力方面所发挥的关键作用，包括许多与影响有关的方面，如降雨变异性和极端情况。不仅降水强度、日循环等小尺度特征有明显改善，大尺度环流也有明显改善。同样，显性对流的影响不仅影响极端降雨量、干旱时段和大风的预测变化，而且还影响大陆尺度环流和区域降雨累积。在许多情况下，这种差异背后的物理基础预计将与所有使用参数化对流的模型相关。在某些情况下，对小规模变化的实际了解意味着我们可以向区域决策者提供一系列部门的新的信息尺度。我们展示了这些模拟作为增加气候过程理解的科学工具的潜在价值，以及当与其他模型一起使用时用于直接用户应用的潜在价值。我们描述了这些开创性的模拟是如何在英国政府的非洲未来气候计划下实现的。我们预计这种模拟的数量会越来越多，我们主张这种模拟应该成为气候预测的常规组成部分，并鼓励尽可能有效地对这种计算和人力资源昂贵的模拟进行国际协调。
Pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate model simulations have been performed to study the impact of high resolution and the explicit representation of atmospheric moist convection on the present and future climate of Africa. These unique simulations have allowed European and African climate scientists to understand the critical role that the representation of convection plays in the ability of a contemporary climate model to capture climate and climate change, including many impact-relevant aspects such as rainfall variability and extremes. There are significant improvements in not only the small-scale characteristics of rainfall such as its intensity and diurnal cycle, but also in the large-scale circulation. Similarly, effects of explicit convection affect not only projected changes in rainfall extremes, dry spells, and high winds, but also continental-scale circulation and regional rainfall accumulations. The physics underlying such differences are in many cases expected to be relevant to all models that use parameterized convection. In some cases physical understanding of small-scale change means that we can provide regional decision-makers with new scales of information across a range of sectors. We demonstrate the potential value of these simulations both as scientific tools to increase climate process understanding and, when used with other models, for direct user applications. We describe how these ground-breaking simulations have been achieved under the U.K. Government’s Future Climate for Africa Programme. We anticipate a growing number of such simulations, which we advocate should become a routine component of climate projection, and encourage international coordination of such computationally and human-resource expensive simulations as effectively as possible.