Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature
Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.950
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发表时间：
2003-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Susanto, RD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aldrian, E;Susanto, RD
用双相关方法研究了印度尼西亚气候降水变率的特征。并与经验正交函数法和旋转正交函数法进行了比较。此外，本地和远程响应海表温度（SST）进行了讨论。结果表明，印度尼西亚有三个气候区，各具特色。A区位于印度尼西亚南部，从苏门答腊南部到帝汶岛、加里曼丹南部、苏拉威西岛和伊里安查亚的一部分。B区位于印度尼西亚西北部，从苏门答腊岛北方到加里曼丹岛西北部。C区包括马鲁古和北方苏拉威西。这三个地区都表现出强劲的年度和。除A区外，半年变率。C区受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）影响最强，其次是A区。在区域B中，ENSO相关信号被抑制。除B区外，各区域的海温与降水量的相关性均较好，表明其对季节气候的预测能力较强。3 ~ 5月是降水变率预报最困难的季节。6 ~ 11月，A区和C区的降水型对ENSO有显著的响应。在厄尔尼诺年，在这个通常干旱的季节（6月至9月），强烈的ENSO影响是危险的，因为负响应意味着太平洋地区NINO 3的较高SST将降低印度尼西亚地区的降雨量。印度尼西亚降雨变率的分析表明，在印度洋和太平洋的邻近地区的SST变率的一些敏感性。版权所有（C）2003皇家气象学会。
The characteristics of climatic rainfall variability in Indonesia are investigated using a double correlation method. The results are compared with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated EOF methods. In addition, local and remote responses to sea-surface temperature (SST) are discussed. The results suggest three climatic regions in Indonesia with their distinct characteristics. Region A is located in southern Indonesia from south Sumatera to Timor island, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi and part of Irian Jaya. Region B is located in northwest Indonesia from northern Sumatra to northwestern Kalimantan. Region C encompasses Maluku and northern Sulawesi. All three regions show both strong annual and. except Region A, semi-annual variability. Region C shows the strongest El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) influence, followed by Region A. In Region B, the ENSO-related signal is suppressed. Except for Region B, there are significant correlations between SST and the rainfall variabilities, indicating a strong possibility for seasonal climate predictions. March to May is the most difficult season to predict the rainfall variability. From June to November, there are significant responses of the rainfall pattern to ENSO in Regions A and C. A strong ENSO influence during this normally dry season (June to September) is hazardous in El Nino years, because the negative response means that higher SST in the NINO3 of the Pacific region will lower the rainfall amount over the Indonesian region. Analyses of Indonesian rainfall variability reveal some sensitivities to SST variabilities in adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.