Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003
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发表时间：
2019-09
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
P. Klotzbach;E. Blake;J. Camp;L. Caron;J. Chan;N. Kang;Yuriy Kuleshov;Sai‐Ming Lee;H. Murakami-H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Klotzbach;E. Blake;J. Camp;L. Caron;J. Chan;N. Kang;Yuriy Kuleshov;Sai‐Ming Lee;H. Murakami-H.
本文综述了世界上12个机构对季节性热带气旋活动的预报方法、预报结果和预报技巧。这些机构使用各种技术，从统计模型到动态模型，预测整个流域的活动和区域活动。此外，一些动力和混合统计/动力模型现在预测TC路径密度以及登陆的可能性。实时大西洋季节性飓风预报显示，在2003-2018年评估时，4月的技能较低，6月的技能适中，8月的技能良好，可以预测整个流域的TC活动。实时北太平洋西部季节性热带气旋预报在7月对2003-2018年的全流域强台风数量和ACE指数进行评估时表现出良好的技能。后报和实时预报都显示了对其他热带气旋盆地的技能。最近对预测季节性以外TC活动的研究总结（例如，多年）的时间尺度。对未来研究领域的建议也进行了讨论。
This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity. In addition, several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood. Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April, modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018. Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018. Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins. A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal (e.g., multi-year) timescales is included. Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed.