Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth
Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053002
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发表时间：
2012-09-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jagger, T. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elsner, J. B.;Trepanier, J. C.;Jagger, T. H.
随着海洋温度的升高，特别是在北大西洋上空，最强的飓风变得越来越强。飓风强度对海洋加热的敏感性是了解未来飓风可能是什么样的一个重要变量，但在短时间序列记录下不可能做出可靠的估计。使用强度和海面温度（SST）成对值的研究也很有限，因为大多数成对值代表的飓风环境不是最佳的。在这里，我们克服了这些限制，使用空间网格和模型的限制飓风强度的地区，并估计灵敏度为7.9 +/- 1.19 m s（-）K-1（s.e.）在北大西洋温度超过25摄氏度的海面上的飓风。结果表明，随着世界这一地区的海洋继续变暖，世纪可能会出现更强的飓风。引文：Elsner，J. B.，J. C. Trepanier，S. E. Strazzo和T. H. Jagger（2012），限制飓风强度对海洋温暖的敏感性，Geophys。保留信函：39，L17702，doi：10.1029/2012GL053002。
The strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as the oceans heat up especially over the North Atlantic. Sensitivity of hurricane intensity to ocean heating is an important variable for understanding what hurricanes might be like in the future, but reliable estimates are not possible with short time-series records. Studies using paired values of intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST) are also limited because most pairs represent hurricanes in an environment less than thermodynamically optimal. Here we overcome these limitations using spatial grids and a model for the limiting hurricane intensity by region and estimate the sensitivity to be 7.9 +/- 1.19 m s(-) K-1 (s.e.) for hurricanes over seas hotter than 25 degrees C across the North Atlantic. Results indicate the potential for stronger hurricanes during the 21st century as oceans continue to warm over this part of the world. Citation: Elsner, J. B., J. C. Trepanier, S. E. Strazzo, and T. H. Jagger (2012), Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053002.