Using ins Border Apprehension Data to Measure the Flow of Undocumented Migrants Crossing the U.S.-Mexico Frontier 1
Using ins Border Apprehension Data to Measure the Flow of Undocumented Migrants Crossing the U.S.-Mexico Frontier 1
复制标题
使用移民局边境逮捕数据来衡量穿越美墨边境的无证移民流量 1
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
T. Espenshade
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Espenshade
本文考察了有关移民局边境逮捕的数据与穿越美国南部边境的非法移民流动之间的关系。其核心是墨西哥-美国边境非法移民过程的人口模型。这一模式既是一个概念框架，使我们能够看到逮捕和非法移民流动之间的理论联系，也是一种估计无证移民总数的方法手段。该模型的一个含义是，第一次可以通过经验来检验逮捕和非法流动之间的关系。我们表明，在每个时期，逮捕和无证流动之间的比率仅仅是在任何给定的秘密进入美国的企图中被找到并被逮捕的几率。此外，1977-1988年的数据表明，逮捕人数与非法移民数量之间的简单线性关系约为0.90，非法移民人数约为边境巡逻队逮捕人数的2.2倍。文章最后讨论了在什么情况下使用移民局的逮捕数据作为无证美国移民流动的指标是合适的。
This article examines how data on INS border apprehensions are related to the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the southern U.S. border. Its centerpiece is a demographic model of the process of unauthorized migration across the Mexico-U.S. frontier. This model is both a conceptual framework that allows us to see theoretical linkages between apprehensions and illegal migrant flows, and a methodological device that yields estimates of the gross number of undocumented migrants. One implication of the model is that, for the first time, the relation between apprehensions and illegal flows can be examined empirically. We show that the ratio in each period between apprehensions and the undocumented flow is simply the odds of being located and arrested on any given attempt to enter the United States clandestinely. In addition, data for 1977–1988 suggest that the simple linear correlation between the number of apprehensions and the volume of illegal immigration is approximately 0.90 and that the size of the illegal migrant flow is roughly 2.2 times the number of Border Patrol arrests. The article concludes with a discussion of the conditions under which it is appropriate to use INS apprehensions data as an indicator for the flow of undocumented U.S. migrants.