Analysis of current trends in United States mesothelioma incidence
Analysis of current trends in United States mesothelioma incidence
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DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009093
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发表时间：
1997-02-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Price, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Price, B
间皮瘤发病率通常被解释为过去暴露于空气中石棉的一个指标，美国男性间皮瘤的发病率在整个20世纪70年代和80年代初呈现出上升的趋势。这一趋势被归因于第二次世界大战期间造船业、制造业和建筑业的职业暴露。来自监测、流行病学和最终结果计划的发病率数据(1973-1992)被用来调查年龄调整和特定年龄的间皮瘤发病率的当前趋势。年龄和出生队列模型被用来通过队列预测间皮瘤的终生概率和未来70年预计的年度病例数量。目前女性比率的趋势是持平的(年龄调整比率=每100,000人中有0.3人)。女性的终身风险估计为2.5x10(-4)，与出生队列无关。预计女性病例的年均数量为500例。对于男性来说，年龄调整后的间皮瘤发病率仅仅是由于75岁及以上的年龄组而增加的，尽管增长率在下降。男性的终生风险在1925-1929年的出生队列中达到2x10(-3)的峰值，然后在1955-1959年的出生队列中下降到5x10(-4)。反映在年龄和出生队列模型中的发病率模式表明，2000年前男性间皮瘤病例的年度数量达到2300例的峰值。然后，男性病例的数量将在未来50-60年内下降到500人。这些趋势反映了美国原始石棉消费的趋势，以及工作场所空气中石棉水平的下降。
Mesothelioma incidence often is interpreted as an index of past exposure to airborne asbestos, The mesothelioma rate for US males exhibits an increasing trend throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. The trend has been attributed to occupational exposure in the shipbuilding industry during World War II, in manufacturing, and in building construction. Incidence data (1973-1992) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were used to investigate current trends in age-adjusted and age-specific mesothelioma rates. An age and birth-cohort model was used to project both lifetime probabilities of mesothelioma by cohort and the annual number of cases expected over the next 70 years. The current trend in female rates is flat (age-adjusted rate = 0.30 per 100,000). The estimated lifetime risk for females is 2.5 x 10(-4), independent of birth cohort. The projected average annual number of female cases is 500. For males, the age-adjusted mesothelioma rate is increasing solely due to the age group 75 years and over, albeit at a declining growth rate. Lifetime risk for males peaks at 2 x 10(-3) for the 1925-1929 birth cohort, then decreases to 5 x 10(-4) for the 1955-1959 birth cohort. The pattern of rates reflected in the age and birth-cohort model suggests a peak in the annual number of mesothelioma cases for males at 2,300 before the year 2000. The number of male cases then will drop during the next 50-60 years toward 500. These trends mirror the US trend in raw asbestos consumption and a reduction in workplace airborne asbestos levels.