Pacific region climate change
Pacific region climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/s0964-5691(97)00010-0
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发表时间：
1997-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Meehl, GA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Meehl, GA
由于厄尔尼诺相关的气候异常对印度洋和太平洋广大地区的社会产生普遍影响，气候模型模拟可以提供有关未来可能出现的气候变化的宝贵信息，这些变化可能在这些地区具有类似的特征。全球海洋-大气环流耦合模型中二氧化碳（CO2）增加导致太平洋地区平均气候变化，其特点是东热带太平洋海洋表面的变暖程度高于西热带太平洋。这种模式类似于厄尔尼诺现象以及 20 世纪 80 年代观察到的十年时间尺度气候异常。因此，在二氧化碳浓度增加的模型中，赤道中部太平洋降水量平均增加，而北部和南部热带太平洋、澳大利亚和东印度洋地区降水量却减少。北太平洋加深的阿留申低压中心也与模型中二氧化碳增加导致的平均气候变化有关，并且与厄尔尼诺状况和十年时间尺度观测到的异常模式相似。模型结果表明，澳大利亚地区未来的干旱已经与自然发生的厄尔尼诺事件有关，由于大气中二氧化碳含量增加导致相同迹象的气候异常并存，干旱的强度将会增加。这一结果对这些地区的淡水资源管理具有重要意义。 (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Due to the pervasive effect of El Nino-related climate anomalies on societies over broad regions of the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions, climate model simulations can provide valuable information concerning possible future climate change that could have a similar signature in those regions. Average climate change in the Pacific region from increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is characterized by greater warming of the ocean surface in the eastern tropical Pacific than in the western tropical Pacific. This pattern resembles EI Nino conditions as well as the decadal timescale climate anomalies observed during the 1980s. As a consequence, average increases in precipitation in the central equatorial Pacific in the model with increased CO2 are accompanied by precipitation decreases in the northern and southern tropical Pacific, Australasia and eastern Indian Ocean regions. A deepened Aleutian low pressure center in the North Pacific is also associated with mean climate changes due to increased CO2 in the model and is similar to El Nino conditions and the decadal timescale observed anomaly pattern. The model results suggest that future droughts in the Australasian region, already associated with naturally-occurring EI Nino events, would increase in intensity due to the juxtaposition of climate anomalies of the same sign from increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. This result has implications for the management of fresh water resources in these regions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.