Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations
Future European temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations
复制标题
通过使用陆地热通量观测减少未来欧洲温度变化的不确定性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Jung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Stegehuis;A. Teuling;P. Ciais;R. Vautard;M. Jung
由于大气中温室气体水平的增加，欧洲夏季气候的变异性预计在下个世纪将增加，可能导致更频繁和更极端的干旱和热浪。然而，气候模式在这些过程的量级上存在分歧，这是由于难以模拟的陆面耦合过程，并且受观测的约束很差。在这里，我们使用基于网格观测的感热通量来约束来自15个区域气候模式集合的气候变化预测。陆地热通量观测表明，温度预测可能被低估了高达1 K区域在中欧到北方欧洲，而略高估了地中海和巴尔干半岛的地区。使用基于观测的热通量数据可以显着降低2071-2100年期间模型集合温度传播所表示的不确定性。在法国和巴尔干半岛的上空获得了最大的减少，局部值达到40%。
The variability of European summer climate is expected to increase in the next century due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, likely resulting in more frequent and more extreme droughts and heatwaves. However, climate models diverge on the magnitude of these processes, due to land‐surface coupling processes which are difficult to simulate, and poorly constrained by observations. Here we use gridded observation‐based sensible heat fluxes to constrain climate change predictions from an ensemble of 15 regional climate models. Land heat flux observations suggest that temperature projections may be underestimated by up to 1 K regionally in Central to Northern Europe, while slightly overestimated over the Mediterranean and Balkan regions. The use of observation‐based heat flux data allows significant reductions in uncertainty as expressed by the model ensemble spread of temperature for the 2071–2100 period. Maximal reduction is obtained over France and the Balkan with values locally reaching 40%.