Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach.
Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach.
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事后偏见和因果推理：极简主义方法。
DOI：
10.1007/s10339-011-0414-z
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Kim,NancyS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yopchick,JennelleE;Kim,NancyS
什么因素导致了后见之明偏见，即一件事的已知结果只有在事后才显得明显的现象？后见之明偏差的因果模型理论（CMT）（Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39：182-188，2008 a; in J Expl Psychol：Learn Mem Cog 34：1043-1054，2008 b; Pezzo in Mem 11：421-441，2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17：30-35，1991）认为，当人们有机会识别潜在的因果前因并评估它们是否可能导致结果时，会发生后见之明偏差。两个实验纳入高度控制的最低限度的情况下支持CMT。如CMT所预测的，当因果因素对实际结果的解释优于替代结果时，发生后见之明偏差，当因果因素对替代结果的解释优于实际结果时，发生反向后见之明偏差。此外，我们发现新的证据表明，在没有潜在因果前因的情况下，仅靠结果知识不足以引起事后诸葛亮。后见之明偏差研究的未来方向的影响进行了讨论。
What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? TheCausal Model Theory(CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182–188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043–1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421–441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30–35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed.