GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss
GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss
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DOI：
10.1007/s10021-009-9229-5
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
ten Brink, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alkemade, Rob;van Oorschot, Mark;ten Brink, Ben
GLOBIO 3模型的开发是为了评估过去、现在和未来在区域和全球范围内人类引起的生物多样性变化。该模型是建立在环境驱动因素和生物多样性影响之间的简单因果关系基础上的，以最新知识为基础。原始物种相对于其在未受干扰的生态系统（MSA）中的丰度的平均丰度被用作生物多样性的指标。驱动因素的变化来自IMAGE 2.4模型。考虑的驱动因素是土地覆盖变化、土地利用强度、破碎化、气候变化、大气氮沉降和基础设施发展。GLOBIO 3涉及（一）环境驱动因素对MSA的影响及其相对重要性;（二）各种未来情景下的预期趋势;以及（三）各种政策应对方案的可能影响。GLOBIO 3已成功地用于若干综合区域和全球评估。评估了三种不同的全球范围政策选择减少MSA损失的潜力。这些选项是：通过扩大使用生物能源、增加种植园林和增加保护区来减缓气候变化。我们的结论是，MSA的损失可能会继续在未来几十年。种植园林业可能有助于降低损失率，而通过广泛使用生物能源作物减缓气候变化实际上会增加损失率。保护所有大型生态系统中的20%可以使损失率略有下降，但前提是保护措施有效，目前退化的保护区得到恢复。
The GLOBIO3 model has been developed to assess human-induced changes in biodiversity, in the past, present, and future at regional and global scales. The model is built on simple cause-effect relationships between environmental drivers and biodiversity impacts, based on state-of-the-art knowledge. The mean abundance of original species relative to their abundance in undisturbed ecosystems (MSA) is used as the indicator for biodiversity. Changes in drivers are derived from the IMAGE 2.4 model. Drivers considered are land-cover change, land-use intensity, fragmentation, climate change, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and infrastructure development. GLOBIO3 addresses (i) the impacts of environmental drivers on MSA and their relative importance; (ii) expected trends under various future scenarios; and (iii) the likely effects of various policy response options. GLOBIO3 has been used successfully in several integrated regional and global assessments. Three different global-scale policy options have been evaluated on their potential to reduce MSA loss. These options are: climate-change mitigation through expanded use of bio-energy, an increase in plantation forestry, and an increase in protected areas. We conclude that MSA loss is likely to continue during the coming decades. Plantation forestry may help to reduce the rate of loss, whereas climate-change mitigation through the extensive use of bioenergy crops will, in fact, increase this rate of loss. The protection of 20% of all large ecosystems leads to a small reduction in the rate of loss, provided that protection is effective and that currently degraded protected areas are restored.