Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios
Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios
复制标题
土地利用变化增加洪水灾害：评估社会经济土地利用变化情景驱动的洪水特征变化的多模型方法
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-018-3557-8
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
L. Sintondji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jean Hounkpè;B. Diekkrüger;A. Afouda;L. Sintondji
我们在工作中分析了土地利用/土地覆盖变化如何影响洪水特征（频率和震级），使用了模型相互比较方法、统计方法和三个时间范围内的两种土地利用情景（土地利用情景a和土地利用情景B）。从这些情景中得到的土地利用图被认为是两个基于物理的水文模型（SWAT和WaSiM）的强迫输入。采用广义帕累托分布和泊松分布相结合的方法计算洪水的频率和震级。在土地利用情景A下，耕地面积年增长率为0.7%，而在土地利用情景B下，2003 - 2029年耕地面积年增长率为1.13%。农田的扩张无疑增加了洪水的风险。虽然人们对变化的意义大致一致，但洪水特征变化的幅度受到模式类型的高度影响。SWAT模拟的10年洪水分位数增长率（0.36-1.3%）小于WaSiM模拟的相应变化幅度（2.6-7.0%）。在土地利用情景A下，农田和牧场以每年0.7%的速度扩张（在土地利用情景B下分别为1.13%），考虑WaSiM的10年洪水增加3.6%（分别为5.4%）。这项研究首次在洪水严重程度/频率与农业用地扩张和自然植被减少之间建立了强有力的统计关系。本研究的结果对科学研究界和决策者制定适当的政策决策，以管理该地区未来的极端事件和土地利用规划/管理具有相关和有用的意义。
We analysed in the work how change in land use/land cover influences on flood characteristics (frequency and magnitude) using a model inter-comparison approach, statistical methods and two land use scenarios (land use scenario A and land use scenario B) for three time horizons. The derived land use maps from these scenarios were considered as forcing inputs to two physically based hydrological models (SWAT and WaSiM). The generalized Pareto distribution combined with the Poisson distribution was used to compute flood frequency and magnitude. Under land use scenario A, croplands increase at the annual rate of 0.7% while under land use scenario B, it increases by 1.13% between 2003 and 2029. The expansion of croplands indubitably enhances flood risks. Although there was a general agreement about the sense of the variation, the magnitude of change in flood characteristics was highly influenced by the model type. The rate of increase in flood quantiles simulated from SWAT (0.36–1.3% for 10-year flood) was smaller than the corresponding magnitude of changes simulated from WaSiM (2.6–7.0% for 10-year flood) whatever the scenarios. The expansion of agricultural and pasture lands at the yearly rate of 0.7% under land use scenario A (respectively, 1.13% under land use scenario B) leads to an increase of 3.6% (respectively, 5.4%) in 10-year flood by considering WaSiM. This study is among the first of its kind to establish a strong statistical relation between flood severity/frequency and agricultural land expansion and natural vegetation reduction. The results of this study are relevant and useful to the scientific research community as well as the decision makers for framing appropriate policy decisions towards the management of extreme events and the land use planning/management in future in the region.