Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business-as-usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis
Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business-as-usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis
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DOI：
10.1111/jiec.12926
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发表时间：
2019-07-18
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Van der Voet, Ester
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong, Di;Tukker, Arnold;Van der Voet, Ester
本文通过建立一个动态库存模型和情景分析方法，基于政府和相关部门政策，对2005 - 2050年中国铜需求进行了自下而上的分析。结果表明，短期内，如果不采取额外措施，中国铜工业无法实现完全的循环经济。铜的总需求和人均需求都将大幅增长，特别是在基础设施、交通和建筑领域。从2016年到2050年，铜的总需求将增长近三倍。建筑用铜将在2050年前趋于稳定，但基础设施和交通运输用铜在2050年尚未达到饱和。铜库存的持续增长意味着，即使假设回收率为90%，再生铜最多也只能满足2050年需求的50%以上。最后，未来的铜需求在很大程度上取决于应用的寿命。因此，迫切需要延长最终用途产品的使用寿命，以减少材料的使用量，特别是在建筑物和基础设施的大规模应用中。
In this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom-up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral policies. The results show that in the short-term, China's copper industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without additional measures. Aggregate and per capita copper demand are both set to increase substantially, especially in infrastructure, transportation, and buildings. Between 2016 and 2050, total copper demand will increase almost threefold. Copper use in buildings will stabilize before 2050, but the copper stock in infrastructure and transportation will not yet have reached saturation in 2050. The continuous growth of copper stock implies that secondary copper will be able to cover just over 50% of demand in 2050, at best, even with an assumed recycling rate of 90%. Finally, future copper demand depends largely on the lifetime of applications. There is therefore an urgent need to prolong the service life of end-use products to reduce the amount of materials used, especially in large-scale applications in buildings and infrastructure.