Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over China, 1951–2005
Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over China, 1951–2005
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-007-0375-4
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Qi Zhang;Qi Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;Zeng-xin Zhang;Y. Chen;Chunling Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qi Zhang;Qi Zhang;Chong-yu Xu;Zeng-xin Zhang;Y. Chen;Chunling Liu
利用旋转经验正交函数（REOF）、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和连续小波变换（CTW）方法，对中国160个台站1951—2005年的年、冬、夏降水记录进行了分析。利用REOF方法分析中国降水模式的年际和季节变化，利用Mann-Kendall方法检测旋转主成分时间序列的时间变化趋势，利用连续小波分析降水变化的周期性。总体而言，利用REOF方法在中国确定了6个相干区域：中国东北；长江中下游流域；海河、辽河；中国西北;黄河中游和东南河流（中国东南部的河流）。连续小波变换结果表明，显著的2 ~ 4年和6 ~ 9年波段是主要的周期成分。中国降水在时空上不均匀，各季节降水复杂的时间结构和空间变化也不同。Mann-Kendall检验结果表明，总体上，长江中下游以年、夏、冬降水增加为主。西北地区年降水量呈增加趋势。夏季降水以东北和珠江流域增加为主，东南部河流以冬季降水增加为主。水作为一种资源的可得性与降水变化密切相关；因此，本研究对中国流域水资源管理具有一定的指导意义。
Annual, winter and summer precipitation records for the period 1951–2005 from 160 stations in China were analysed using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann–Kendall trend test and the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CTW) method. The REOF method was used to analyse the annual and seasonal variability of precipitation patterns over China, the Mann–Kendall method was used to detect the temporal trend of the rotated principal components time series, and the continuous wavelet method was used to explore the periodicity of precipitation changes. In general, six coherent regions across China are identified using the REOF method: north-east China; the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; the Haihe River and the Liaohe River; north-west China; the middle Yellow River and the South-east Rivers (rivers in south-east China). Continuous wavelet transform results indicate that the significant 2–4 year and 6–9 year bands are the major period components. Precipitation in China is uneven in space and time, and its complex temporal structure and spatial variations are different in each season. The Mann–Kendall test results show that, in general, the middle and the lower sections of the Yangtze River are dominated by increasing annual, summer and winter precipitation. Increasing annual precipitation can be observed in north-west China. Increasing summer precipitation is found in north-east China and the Pearl River basin, and the South-east Rivers are dominated by increasing winter precipitation. The availability of water as a resource is in close association with precipitation changes; therefore, this research will be helpful to watershed-based water resource managers in China.