Government Spending and Private Activity
Government Spending and Private Activity
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政府支出和私人活动
DOI：
10.3386/w17787
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
V. Ramey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Ramey
本文探讨政府支出的增加是否会刺激私人活动。本文的第一部分研究私人支出。使用各种识别方法和样本，我发现，在大多数情况下，私人支出福尔斯显着下降，以应对政府支出的增加。这些结果意味着平均GDP乘数低于1。为了确定同时增加的税率是否会抑制支出乘数，我使用了两种不同的方法来调整税收效应。这两种方法都没有显示出当前税率变化对支出乘数的显著影响。在论文的第二部分，我探讨了政府支出对劳动力市场的影响。我发现政府开支的增加降低了失业率。然而，大多数具体情况和样本表明，几乎所有的影响都是通过增加政府就业，而不是私人就业。因此，我的结论是，总的来说，政府支出似乎并没有刺激私人活动。
This paper asks whether increases in government spending stimulate private activity. The first part of the paper studies private spending. Using a variety of identification methods and samples, I find that in most cases private spending falls significantly in response to an increase in government spending. These results imply that the average GDP multiplier lies below unity. In order to determine whether concurrent increases in tax rates dampen the spending multiplier, I use two different methods to adjust for tax effects. Neither method suggests significant effects of current tax rate changes on the spending multiplier. In the second part of the paper, I explore the effects of government spending on labor markets. I find that increases in government spending lower unemployment. Most specifications and samples imply, however, that virtually all of the effect is through an increase in government employment, not private employment. I thus conclude that on balance government spending does not appear to stimulate private activity.