Projected climate change impacts on Indiana's Energy demand and supply
Projected climate change impacts on Indiana's Energy demand and supply
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2299-7
复制
发表时间：
2020-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Wachs, Elizabeth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raymond, Leigh;Gotham, Douglas;Wachs, Elizabeth
本文估计了由于预计的气候变化影响，印第安纳州未来能源需求和供应的变化。我们首先估计需求变化的情况下，一切照旧的排放情景（RCP 8.5）和基于减少排放量与全球平均气温上升2度一致的情景（RCP 4.5），在全州范围内和主要城市地区。然后，我们使用调整后的全州能源需求预测作为印第安纳州能源系统综合模型的输入，以预测两种情况下该州能源供应的预期变化。最后，我们考虑两个政策的潜在影响，碳定价计划和可再生能源投资税收抵免的排放和未来的能源供应选择。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化对印第安纳州的能源需求和供应的影响相对温和，略微增加商业需求，减少住宅需求，但对能源供应选择的影响不大。此外，我们的研究结果表明，其他州目前正在采用的政策建议，例如相对较小的碳价格或可再生能源投资信贷，对该州未来的能源结构产生更大的影响，增加低碳或零碳能源的产量并减少排放。
This paper estimates changes in future energy demand and supply for Indiana due to projected climate change impacts. We first estimate demand changes under both the business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and a scenario based on reduced emissions consistent with a 2degree increase in global mean temperature (RCP 4.5), on both a statewide basis and for major urban areas. We then use our adjusted statewide energy demand projections as an input to a comprehensive model of Indiana's energy system, to project expected changes in the state's energy supply under both scenarios. Finally, we consider the potential impacts of two policy scenarios-a carbon pricing scheme and a renewable energy investment tax credit-on emissions and future energy supply choices. Our results suggest that climate change will have a relatively modest effect on energy demand and supply in Indiana, slightly increasing commercial demand and decreasing residential demand but having little effect on energy supply choices. In addition, our results suggest the potential for policy proposals currently being adopted in other states, such as a relatively small carbon price or investment credits for renewable energy sources, to have a larger impact on the state's future energy mix, increasing production from low or zero carbon energy sources and reducing emissions.