Do drought management plans reduce drought risk? A risk assessment model for a Mediterranean river basin
Do drought management plans reduce drought risk? A risk assessment model for a Mediterranean river basin
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.01.008
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发表时间：
2012-04-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Perez Blanco, Carlos Dionisio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gomez Gomez, Carlos Mario;Perez Blanco, Carlos Dionisio
在干旱和干旱易发地区，地下水资源传统上被过度开采，灌溉农业有利可图，而这种地下水的枯竭是地表水资源实际稀缺和水务当局缺乏对使用权的有效控制的综合结果。西班牙南部的塞古拉河流域就是这种情况。因此，干旱风险和结构性赤字在过去50年里稳步增加。塞古拉河流域管理局最近批准的干旱管理计划旨在执行更严格的地表水来源供水限制，但该计划没有包括任何处理非法抽取地下水的明确政策。通过随机风险评估模型，本文表明，干旱计划的实施将增加地表水的预期灌溉亏损量，并可能导致比新计划所取代的传统规则更高的干旱和含水层枯竭风险。(C)2012爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Groundwater resources are traditionally overexploited in arid and drought-prone regions with profitable irrigated agriculture, and the depletion of this groundwater results from a combination of the physical scarcity of surface sources and the lack of effective control of use rights on the part of water authorities. This is the case in the Segura River Basin of southern Spain. As a result, drought risks and structural deficits have steadily increased over the last 50 years. The Drought Management Plan recently approved by the Segura River Basin Authority aims to enforce more stringent water supply restrictions from surface sources, but the plan does not include any explicit policy to handle illegal groundwater abstraction. By using a stochastic risk assessment model, this paper shows that the implementation of the drought plan will increase the expected irrigation deficits of surface water and can, paradoxically, lead to higher drought and aquifer depletion risks than the traditional rules that the new plan replaces. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.