Fiscal Discipline and Sustainability of Public Debt An Empirical Analysis using Japanese Long-term Economic Statistics *
Fiscal Discipline and Sustainability of Public Debt An Empirical Analysis using Japanese Long-term Economic Statistics *
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财政纪律和公共债务的可持续性使用日本长期经济统计数据进行的实证分析*
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Kudo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Kudo
本文使用日本长期经济统计（LTES），对公债的可持续性和财政纪律的变化进行了研究。首先，单位根检验的结果表明，日本的公共债务具有可持续性。第二，在日俄战争和第一次世界大战之间以及第二次世界大战后的几十年里，财政纪律很强。在1980年代后半期的财政整顿期间，这一趋势也相对强劲。由此可以得出结论，尽管二战后没有战争费用，但战后日本的财政纪律与战前的财政纪律是相似的。虽然财政整顿的尝试可以在一定程度上减少公共债务，但当前的巨额公共债务将导致未来的高通货膨胀率，就像第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战之后一样。
In this paper, we employ Japanese Long-term Economic Statistics (LTES) to investigate the sustainability of the public debt, and the changes in fiscal discipline. First, the results of the unit-root test show that public debt in Japan is sustainable. Second, fiscal discipline was strong in the periods between the Russo-Japanese War and the First World War, as well as for several decades after the Second World War. It was also relatively strong during the fiscal consolidation period in the latter half of the 1980s. We can thus conclude that the path of post-war fiscal discipline in Japan is similar to that in the pre-war periods, regardless of the absence of war expenses after World War II. Although an attempt at fiscal consolidation could reduce public debt to some degree, the huge amount of current public debt will cause high rates of inflation in the future, as it did after World War I and World War II.
“日本的可持续性、债务管理和公共债务政策”
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia 16
影响因子：
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作者：
國広敏文;他;斉藤嘉臣;田尾雅夫;伊多波良雄;土居丈朗;Hiroko Kudo;工藤裕子;土居 丈朗;持田信樹;井堀利宏;山本清;井堀 利宏
通讯作者：
井堀 利宏