Comparing risk reductions: On the interplay of cognitive strategies, numeracy, complexity, and format
Comparing risk reductions: On the interplay of cognitive strategies, numeracy, complexity, and format
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比较风险降低：关于认知策略、计算能力、复杂性和格式的相互作用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Mario Haas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Barton;Edward T. Cokely;M. Galesic;Anna Koehler;Mario Haas
风险的有效沟通需要从理论上理解认知和任务约束的影响。我们在一项探索四个关键风险沟通变量（即认知策略、计算能力、复杂性和格式）的动态相互作用的实验中，提出了识别绩效参数的进展。具体来说，我们进行了一项协议分析，以追踪在比较两种治疗方法的帮助性时使用的认知策略类型。认知策略的可变性也被检查与(1)格式（表示为绝对或相对风险降低，无论是频率或单事件概率格式）有关；(2)任务难度；(3)计算能力。结果表明，计算能力强的人经常有效地使用更复杂的策略。然而，计算能力强的人的表现优势只存在于比较两种相对风险降低（这需要一个复杂的策略）时，而不存在于比较两种绝对风险降低（这需要一个简单的策略）时。频率格式还发现在非常困难的任务中产生额外的好处（即，在比较绝对和相对风险减少时）。一般来说，虽然战略和准确性受到许多因素的影响，但当以绝对风险减少的形式呈现时，风险沟通往往是最透明的。
Effective communication of risks requires a theoretical understanding of the influences of cognitive and task constraints. We present progress toward the identification of performance parameters in an experiment that explores the dynamic interplay of four key risk communication variables (i.e., cognitive strategies, numeracy, complexity, and format). Specifically, we conducted a protocol analysis to trace the types of cognitive strategies used when comparing the helpfulness of two treatments. Variability in cognitive strategies was also examined as related to (1) format (expressed either as absolute or relative risk reductions in either a frequency or single-event probability format); (2) task difficulty; and (3) numerical skill. Results indicated that highly numerate people often effectively used more complex strategies. However, the performance advantage of highly numerate people only existed when comparing two relative risk reductions (which requires a complex strategy), but not when comparing two absolute risk reductions (which requires a simple strategy). A frequency format was also found to produce additional benefits in very difficult tasks (i.e., when comparing absolute and relative risk reductions). Generally, although strategies and accuracy are influenced by many factors, risk communication tended to be most transparent when presented in terms of absolute risk reductions.