Seasonal Variation Mortality From Pulmonary Fibrosis Is Greatest in the Winter
Seasonal Variation Mortality From Pulmonary Fibrosis Is Greatest in the Winter
复制标题
DOI：
10.1378/chest.08-0703
复制
发表时间：
2009-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.6
通讯作者：
Brown, Kevin K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olson, Amy L.;Swigris, Jeffrey J.;Brown, Kevin K.
背景：在一般人群中，某些呼吸道感染的发生率（以及这些感染的死亡率）在冬季较高。我们假设，在任何原因导致的特发性肺纤维化（IPF）和/或肺纤维化（PF）患者中，死亡率在冬季都会增加，与公认的感染无关。我们的目标是确定 IPF 和/或任何原因的 PF 死亡率是否表现出季节性变化。方法：使用国家卫生统计中心的死亡记录，我们计算了 PF 患者的每月死亡率，并开发了一个多变量模型来确定这些死亡率是否表现出季节性变化。结果：从 1992 年春季到 2003 年秋季，美国有 27,367,580 人死亡，170,984 名死者因患有 PF 疾病而死亡。 PF。与夏季相比，所有 PF 患者的平均死亡率在冬季高出 17.1%（p < 0.0001），在春季高出 12.7%（p < 0.0001），在秋季高出 5.2%（p = 0.0002）。当带有肺炎诊断代码的记录被排除在分析之外，以及仅包含 PF 是根本死因的记录时，这些发现仍然存在。 结论：PF 死亡率表现出显着的季节性变化，即使排除了已识别的感染，PF 死亡率也出现在冬季。需要进一步的研究来确定前瞻性队列中是否存在这种季节性变化，如果存在，则需揭示其病因。 （胸部 2009 年；136:16-22）
Background: In the general population, rates of certain respiratory infections (and mortality from these infections) are higher in winter. We hypothesized that in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and/or pulmonary fibrosis (PF) from any cause, death rates would be increased during the winter season, independent of recognized infection. Our objective was to determine if mortality rates from IPF and/or PF of any cause exhibit seasonal variation.Methods: Using death records from the National Center for Health Statistics, we calculated monthly mortality rates for persons with PF and developed a multivariable model to determine if these mortality rates exhibited seasonal variation.Results: From spring of 1992 to fall of 2003, there were 27,367,580 deaths in the United States and 170,984 decedents with PF. The average mortality rate among all persons with PF was 17.1% higher in winter (p < 0.0001), 12.7% higher in spring (p < 0.0001), and 5.2% higher in fall (p = 0.0002) than in summer months. These findings persisted when records with a diagnostic code for pneumonia were excluded from the analysis as well as when only records in which PF was the underlying cause of death were included in the analysis.Conclusions: Mortality rates from PF exhibit significant seasonal variation, with the highest rates occurring in the winter, even when recognized infection is excluded. Further studies are necessary to determine if this seasonal variation exists in a prospective cohort and, if so, to uncover its etiology. (CHEST 2009; 136:16-22)