Export-Oriented Populism: Commodities and Coalitions in Argentina
Export-Oriented Populism: Commodities and Coalitions in Argentina
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出口导向的民粹主义：阿根廷的商品和联盟
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发表时间：
2009
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通讯作者：
Neal Richardson
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作者：
Neal Richardson
内斯托·基什内尔（Néstor Kirchner，2003-2007）领导下的阿根廷出现了一种新形式的民粹主义，将城市工人的广泛福利与出口促进相结合。本文认为，农业生产的变化为这种“出口导向的民粹主义”创造了条件。历史上，阿根廷的主要出口产品是牛肉和小麦，也是城市工人的主要消费品。吉列尔莫·奥唐纳等学者认为，这种联系加剧了城乡冲突，导致联盟的转变和危机的反复出现。如今，大豆已取代牛肉和小麦成为该国的主要出口产品。由于工人阶级不消费大豆，基什内尔可以促进其出口并对其征税，为民粹主义计划创造财政收入，同时不会损害城市工人的有效购买力或引发国际收支危机。因此，出口导向为阿根廷民粹主义的新变体提供了基础。这项研究在经典研究传统中提供了关于政治与各种类型出口增长之间相互作用的新论点。它同样为民粹主义作为一种政治形式可以在不同的经济环境中出现的论点提供了额外的基础。此外，本文认为，出口繁荣的效果并非一律促进政治稳定，而是取决于出口部门与国内经济之间经济联系的性质。
A new form of populism, combining broad-based benefits for urban workers with export promotion, emerged in Argentina under Néstor Kirchner (2003–2007). This article argues that changes in agricultural production created the conditions for this “export-oriented populism.” Historically, Argentina’s main exports, beef and wheat, were also the primary consumption goods of urban workers. Scholars such as Guillermo O’Donnell have argued that this linkage increased rural-urban conflict, resulting in shifting coalitions and recurring crises. Today, soybeans have replaced beef and wheat as the country’s leading export. Because soybeans are not consumed by the working class, Kirchner could both promote and tax their export, generating fiscal revenue for populist programs while not harming the effective purchasing power of urban workers or provoking a balance-of-payments crisis. Export orientation thus provided the basis for a new variant of Argentine populism. This study offers a new argument within the classic research tradition on the interaction between politics and various types of export growth. It likewise provides an additional basis for arguing that populism, as a form of politics, can arise in diverse economic circumstances. Furthermore, this article contends that, rather than uniformly promoting political stability, the effect of export booms is conditioned by the nature of economic linkages between the export sector and the domestic economy.