On the space-time evolution of a cholera epidemic
On the space-time evolution of a cholera epidemic
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DOI：
10.1029/2007wr006211
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发表时间：
2008-01-19
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Rinaldo, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bertuzzo, E.;Azaele, S.;Rinaldo, A.
我们研究如何河流网络，作为病原体的环境走廊，影响霍乱疫情的传播。具体来说，我们比较流行病学数据从真实的世界与感染个体的时空演变预测的理论方案的基础上反应性运输的传染性病原体通过一个有偏见的网络描绘实际的河流途径。这些数据与2000年开始在南非爆发的霍乱有关，特别影响到夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省。疫情持续了两年，涉及约14万例确诊霍乱病例。水文和人口数据也得到了认真考虑。理论工具涉及到最近的进展，水文，移民战线，感染传播和新颖的节点反应描述霍乱的动态。通过网络链接的传输提供了被感染者的节点动力学的耦合，假设他们居住在节点上。这是一个现实的计划。我们认为，理论方案是非常能够预测实际的爆发，事实上，网络结构发挥了控制作用，在实际的，而各向异性传播的感染，在类比传播的物种或迁移过程中，也使用河流作为生态走廊。
We study how river networks, acting as environmental corridors for pathogens, affect the spreading of cholera epidemics. Specifically, we compare epidemiological data from the real world with the space-time evolution of infected individuals predicted by a theoretical scheme based on reactive transport of infective agents through a biased network portraying actual river pathways. The data pertain to a cholera outbreak in South Africa which started in 2000 and affected in particular the KwaZulu-Natal province. The epidemic lasted for 2 years and involved about 140,000 confirmed cholera cases. Hydrological and demographic data have also been carefully considered. The theoretical tools relate to recent advances in hydrochory, migration fronts, and infection spreading and are novel in that nodal reactions describe the dynamics of cholera. Transport through network links provides the coupling of the nodal dynamics of infected people, who are assumed to reside at the nodes. This proves a realistic scheme. We argue that the theoretical scheme is remarkably capable of predicting actual outbreaks and, indeed, that network structures play a controlling role in the actual, rather anisotropic propagation of infections, in analogy to spreading of species or to migration processes that also use rivers as ecological corridors.