More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century
More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.1098704
复制
发表时间：
2004-08-13
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Tebaldi, C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meehl, GA;Tebaldi, C
全球耦合气候模型显示，未来热浪的变化存在明显的地理模式。与1995年芝加哥和2003年巴黎严重热浪相关的欧洲和北美地区的模式结果表明，未来这些地区的热浪在21世纪下半叶将变得更加强烈、更加频繁和持续时间更长。观测和模型显示，目前欧洲和北美上空的热浪与一种特定的大气环流模式相吻合，这种模式因温室气体的持续增加而加剧，表明未来将在这些地区产生更严重的热浪。
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.