TIME-SERIES TESTS OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH-MODELS
TIME-SERIES TESTS OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH-MODELS
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DOI：
10.2307/2118448
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发表时间：
1995-05-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
JONES, CI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
JONES, CI
根据内生增长理论，某些政策变量的永久性变化会对经济增长率产生永久性影响。然而，从经验上看，美国的增长率没有出现大的持续变化。因此，特定增长模型所强调的长期增长的决定因素也必须同样没有大的持续变化，或者这些变量的持续变化必须被抵消。否则，增长模型与时间序列证据不一致。本文认为，许多AK式的内生增长模型和基于研发的内生增长模型都被这一标准所拒绝。对基于研发的模型的排斥尤其强烈。
According to endogenous growth theory, permanent changes in certain policy variables have permanent effects on the rate of economic growth. Empirically, however, U.S. growth rates exhibit no large persistent changes. Therefore, the determinants of long-run growth highlighted by a specific growth model must similarly exhibit no large persistent changes, or the persistent movement in these variables must be offsetting. Otherwise, the growth model is inconsistent with time series evidence. This paper argues that many AK-style models and R&D-based models of endogenous growth are rejected by this criterion. The rejection of the R&D-based models is particularly strong.