A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography
A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography
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基于气候和地形的天然林结构发展过程的空间明确经验模型
DOI：
10.1111/cobi.13370
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Masaki Takashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yamaura Yuichi;Lindenmayer David;Yamada Yusuke;Gong Hao;Matsuura Toshiya;Mitsuda Yasushi;Masaki Takashi
林分结构随林龄的增长而发展。具有发达林分结构的古老森林支持许多物种。然而，林分结构的发展速度可能会随着气候和地形而变化。我们模拟了4个关键林分变量的结构发展和一个复合年龄生长指数作为气候和地形协变量的函数。我们使用分层贝叶斯方法分析了日本（n = 9244）广泛的快照国家森林资源清查（NFI）数据，以解释林分年龄的差异。结构变量的发育速率和老年生长指数对环境协变量表现出曲线响应。平坦场地的特点是结构发展率高。通常需要大约150年才能达到高值（约0.8）的老增长指数。然而，达到特定值的预测年龄因环境条件而异。空间预测强调了潜在结构发展率的区域差异。例如，有时，即使在同一集水区内，不同地点在木材采伐后达到中等指数值（0.5）方面的差异也超过100年。NFI的数据表明，天然林，特别是古老的天然林（>150年），一般都位于非生产性山脊、陡坡或低温和积雪深的地区，那里的许多结构变量显示出缓慢的发展速度。我们建议，由于林分结构可能会迅速发展，因此应优先保护平坦场地上的古老天然林的维护和恢复，尽管低生产力场地上的剩余天然林仍然很重要，应予以保护。
Stand structure develops with stand age. Old‐growth forests with well‐developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old‐growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap‐shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old‐growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old‐growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low‐productivity sites are still important and should be protected.