Modelling the characteristics of the male injecting drug user population in England and Wales
Modelling the characteristics of the male injecting drug user population in England and Wales
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DOI：
10.1016/j.drugpo.2004.10.002
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Gill, ON
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sutton, AJ;Gay, NJ;Gill, ON
估计注射毒品使用（IDU）人群的特征具有重要的健康意义。本研究提出了一种方法，以确定特定年龄的个人开始注射毒品的比率，并在个人离开注射吸毒人口的比率。一个简单的年龄结构模型，描述了注射的开始和注射器从注射吸毒者群体中的去除及其随时间的演变拟合数据的最大似然法。男性开始注射毒品的高峰年龄是21岁。注射吸毒者离开接受调查的注射吸毒者群体的比率（清除率）随年龄线性增加，直至达到最大比率，此后保持不变。该模型表明，注射吸毒者开始注射的比率可能在1980年代初达到高峰，此后有所下降。这些结果反映了与服务机构接触的注射吸毒者样本的特征;它们表明，注射吸毒的发生率在整个20世纪90年代基本稳定，近年来可能略有下降。实际的注射吸毒者人口可能与调查的样本不同（特别是他们的平均年龄和职业年限可能较低），必须对此进行调查。还应开展更多的模拟工作，试图澄清此处提出的去除率与真实戒烟率之间的差异，因为它们随年龄而变化。(c)2004 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Estimating characteristics of the injecting drug using (IDU) population is of major health importance. This study proposes a method to determine the age-specific rate at which individuals start injecting drugs, and the rate at which individuals leave the IDU population. A simple age-structured model describing the initiation of injecting and the removal of injectors from the IDU population and their evolution over time was fitted to data by maximum likelihood. The peak age at which males start injecting drugs is 21 years. The rate at which IDUs leave the surveyed IDU population (removal rate) increases linearly with age up to a maximum rate and is constant thereafter. The model suggests that the rate at which IDUs started injecting may have peaked during the early 1980s and has declined since. These results reflect the characteristics of a sample of IDUs in contact with services; they suggest that the incidence of injecting drug use has been broadly stable throughout the 1990s with possibly a slight drop in recent years. The actual IDU population may differ from the surveyed sample (in particular they may have a lower average age and length of career) and this must be investigated. Additional modelling work attempting to clarify the difference between the removal rates proposed here and the true cessation rates as they vary with age should also be undertaken. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.