Postoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy
Postoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy
复制标题
DOI：
10.1200/jco.2005.01.867
复制
发表时间：
2005-10-01
影响因子：
45.3
通讯作者：
Kattan, MW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stephenson, AJ;Scardino, PT;Kattan, MW
目的：根治性前列腺切除术（RP）后前列腺癌复发的术后列线图已被独立验证为准确和区分。我们通过将预测延长至RP后10年来更新了诺模图，并使诺模图预测能够根据患者在RP后保持的无病间隔进行调整。方法：使用考克斯回归分析对1，881名接受RP治疗临床局限性前列腺癌的患者的临床信息进行建模，这些患者由两名高容量外科医生进行。该模型分别在1，782名患者和1，357名患者的两个独立队列中进行了外部验证。疾病进展被定义为前列腺特异性抗原（PSA）水平上升，临床进展，放射治疗超过12个月后，或启动全身therapeutic.Results：10年的无进展概率为建模集为79%（95%CI，75%至82%）。多变量模型中的重要变量包括PSA（P =.002）、原发性（P
Purpose: A postoperative nomogram for prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been independently validated as accurate and discriminating. We have updated the nomogram by extending the predictions to 10 years after RP and have enabled the nomogram predictions to be adjusted for the disease-free interval that a patient has maintained after RP.Methods: Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1,881 patients who underwent RP for clinically-localized prostate cancer by two high-volume surgeons. The model was externally validated separately on two independent cohorts of 1,782 patients and 1,357 patients, respectively. Disease progression was defined as a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical progression, radiotherapy more than 12 months postoperatively, or initiation of systemic therapy.Results: The 10-year progression-free probability for the modeling set was 79% (95% CI, 75% to 82%). Significant variables in the multivariable model included PSA (P =.002), primary (P