Assessing vulnerability to drought based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A case study in middle Inner Mongolia of China
Assessing vulnerability to drought based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A case study in middle Inner Mongolia of China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4
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发表时间：
2013-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Xiaoqian Liu;Yanglin Wang;Jian Peng;A. Braimoh;H. Yin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaoqian Liu;Yanglin Wang;Jian Peng;A. Braimoh;H. Yin
在本文中，我们提出了一个评估生态系统战略绩效的框架，该战略旨在增强减少气候变化造成的危害时的脆弱性。该框架通过引入适应能力作为评估标准，强调了人类活动在人与自然耦合系统（CHANS）中的积极影响。针对某种灾害的内在区域脆弱性是基于脆弱性的三个维度的相互作用而产生的：暴露度、敏感性和适应能力。我们举例说明了该框架在中国北部内蒙古中部温带农牧过渡带的应用，该地区干旱灾害是 CHANS 的主要威胁。制定了具体指数，将这种气候变化和社会经济差异转化为具体指标。结果表明，暴露程度最高的地区是内陆地区，而位于东部的县可能是适应性最强的地区。鄂尔多斯市和巴彦淖尔市受多重气候变化影响最频繁，敏感性最高。分析还表明，适应变化能力的差异是造成空间差异的主要原因。通过空间分异描述和原因分析，划分气候区以刻画面临干旱威胁的差异。根据三角图绘制的指标的数量结构，气候区与脆弱区相似。进一步分析脆弱性指数的构成表明，评价标准在验证空间分异方面是有效的，但由于其时间范围有限，可能无效。本研究将展示如何通过定量方法将这三个维度结合起来，从而为政府的脆弱性管理提供指导。
In this paper, we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change. The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system (CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion. A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China, where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS. Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators. The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas, while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones. Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances, showing highest sensitivity. Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences. After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons, climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats. The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map. Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope. This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.