Nonlinear averaging of thermal experience predicts population growth rates in a thermally variable environment
Nonlinear averaging of thermal experience predicts population growth rates in a thermally variable environment
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2018.1076
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发表时间：
2018-09-12
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
O'Connor, Mary I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bernhardt, Joey R.;Sunday, Jennifer M.;O'Connor, Mary I.
随着全球温度状况的变化，对未来种群和物种持续性的预测往往需要估计种群增长率如何取决于温度。这些预测很少考虑到温度的时间变化如何系统地改变相对于基于恒定温度的预测的增长率。在这里，我们测试的假设，即时间平均的人口增长率在波动的热环境中的增长率不同于在恒定条件下的詹森的不平等的结果，和热性能曲线（TPC）描述人口增长在波动的环境中可以定量预测的基础上在恒定的实验室条件下产生的TPC。与实验人口的绿色Tetraselmis四螺旋，我们表明，非线性平均技术准确地预测增加，以及减少人口增长率在波动的热制度相对于恒定的热制度。我们推断，从这些结果项目的临界温度自然变热环境中的89种浮游植物种群增长和持久性。这些结果提高了我们在全球变化背景下预测人口动态的能力。
As thermal regimes change worldwide, projections of future population and species persistence often require estimates of how population growth rates depend on temperature. These projections rarely account for how temporal variation in temperature can systematically modify growth rates relative to projections based on constant temperatures. Here, we tested the hypothesis that time-averaged population growth rates in fluctuating thermal environments differ from growth rates in constant conditions as a consequence of Jensen's inequality, and that the thermal performance curves (TPCs) describing population growth in fluctuating environments can be predicted quantitatively based on TPCs generated in constant laboratory conditions. With experimental populations of the green alga Tetraselmis tetrahele, we show that nonlinear averaging techniques accurately predicted increased as well as decreased population growth rates in fluctuating thermal regimes relative to constant thermal regimes. We extrapolate from these results to project critical temperatures for population growth and persistence of 89 phytoplankton species in naturally variable thermal environments. These results advance our ability to predict population dynamics in the context of global change.