Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?
Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?
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DOI：
10.1086/699976
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发表时间：
2018-12-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Pope, Devin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DellaVigna, Stefano;Pope, Devin
我们分析了学术专家和非专家如何预测15个计件工资和行为治疗在一个真正的努力任务的结果。专家的平均预测与实验结果非常接近，具有很强的群体智慧效应：平均预测优于96%的个人预测。引文、学术排名、领域和背景经验与准确性无关。专家作为一个群体比非专家做得更好，但如果准确性被定义为等级排序处理，则不是这样。努力、信心和显示能力的测量在某种程度上可以预测预测准确性，并使我们能够在非专家中识别超级预测者。
We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts the experimental results, with a strong wisdom-of-crowds effect: the average forecast outperforms 96 percent of individual forecasts. Citations, academic rank, field, and contextual experience do not correlate with accuracy. Experts as a group do better than nonexperts, but not if accuracy is defined as rank-ordering treatments. Measures of effort, confidence, and revealed ability are predictive of forecast accuracy to some extent and allow us to identify superforecasters among the nonexperts.