When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
复制标题
财政乘数什么时候高？
DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103852
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Berge T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berge T
本文比较了商业周期各个阶段财政支出对经济活动的影响。我们表明，失业率上升时的财政乘数高于失业率下降时的财政乘数。相反，财政乘数并不取决于失业率是高于还是低于其长期趋势。这一结果既出现在美国国家层面的长期时间序列分析中，也出现在越南战争后美国各州小组的分析中。我们的研究结果综合了先前关于财政乘数对国家依赖性的证据（有时是相互矛盾的），并暗示在经济衰退初期进行财政干预对于稳定产出最为有效。
This paper compares the effect of fiscal spending on economic activity across various phases of the business cycle. We show that the fiscal multiplier is higher when unemployment is increasing than when it is decreasing. Conversely, fiscal multipliers do not depend on whether the unemployment rate is above or below its long-term trend. This result emerges both in the analysis of long time-series at the U.S. national level as well as for a post-Vietnam War panel of U.S. states. Our findings synthesize previous, at times conflicting, evidence on the state-dependence of fiscal multipliers and imply that fiscal intervention early on in economic downturns is most effective at stabilizing output.