Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years
Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aa87be
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Spracklen, D. V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Butt, E. W.;Turnock, S. T.;Spracklen, D. V.
长期暴露于环境颗粒物（PM2.5，空气动力学干直径< 2.5 μ m的颗粒质量）是全球疾病负担的一个主要风险因素。以前的研究集中在目前或未来的健康负担归因于环境PM2.5。在过去几十年中，很少有研究估计PM2.5的变化和可归因的健康负担，这段时间空气质量变化迅速。在这里，我们使用HadGEM 3-UKCA耦合化学-气候模型，集成的安全-响应关系，人口和背景疾病数据，以提供1960年至2009年期间全球和区域环境PM2.5浓度变化的第一次估计。在此期间，全球平均人口加权PM2.5浓度增加了38%，主要是中国和印度的增加。1960年至2009年期间，全球归因死亡增加了89%至124%，其中中国和印度的大幅增加占主导地位。人口增长和老龄化是中国和印度归因死亡增加的主要原因，突出了人口趋势的重要性。相比之下，PM2.5浓度下降和背景疾病在欧洲和美国的可归因健康负担减少中占主导地位。我们的研究结果揭示了人口统计学的未来预测趋势和确定性-响应关系的不确定性可能为亚洲未来的空气质量政策带来挑战。
Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5, mass of particles with an aerodynamic dry diameter of < 2.5 mu m) is a major risk factor to the global burden of disease. Previous studies have focussed on present day or future health burdens attributed to ambient PM2.5. Few studies have estimated changes in PM2.5 and attributable health burdens over the last few decades, a period where air quality has changed rapidly. Here we used the HadGEM3-UKCA coupled chemistry-climate model, integrated exposure-response relationships, demographic and background disease data to provide the first estimate of the changes in global and regional ambient PM2.5 concentrations and attributable health burdens over the period 1960 to 2009. Over this period, global mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations increased by 38%, dominated by increases in China and India. Global attributable deaths increased by 89% to 124% over the period 1960 to 2009, dominated by large increases in China and India. Population growth and ageing contributed mostly to the increases in attributable deaths in China and India, highlighting the importance of demographic trends. In contrast, decreasing PM2.5 concentrations and background disease dominated the reduction in attributable health burden in Europe and the United States. Our results shed light on how future projected trends in demographics and uncertainty in the exposure-response relationship may provide challenges for future air quality policy in Asia.