Strategic resource planning of endoscopy services using hybrid modelling for future demographic and policy change
Strategic resource planning of endoscopy services using hybrid modelling for future demographic and policy change
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DOI：
10.1080/01605682.2022.2078675
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发表时间：
2022-05-18
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Mustafee, Navonil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harper, Alison;Mustafee, Navonil
对于医疗保健服务的战略规划，了解和考虑未来的需求可以支持资源管理。一个混合建模方法是很好的位置，以解决这些问题，使用需求预测与模拟能力规划。我们提出了一种方法，概念化的每个阶段作为一个战略过程中的合作活动。中长期需求不确定，取决于内部和外部因素。我们的新型需求预测使用内部需求驱动因素和环境扫描来识别对需求的外部影响。这些为三种程序中的每一种创建需求轨迹，这些程序与离散事件模拟一起使用，以告知内窥镜诊断服务的战略规划。这项研究涉及在英格兰的一个主要的医疗保健信托合作，并证明了我们的方法的适用性，以支持在区域服务水平的战略变化，通过调整外部需求与内部资源规划。
For strategic planning of healthcare services, understanding and accounting for future demand can support resource management. A hybrid modelling approach is well-placed to address these issues using demand projections with simulation for capacity planning. We present a methodology which conceptualises each stage as a collaborative activity in a strategic process. Medium-to-long term demand is uncertain, and depends upon internal and external factors. Our novel demand projections use both drivers of internal demand, and environmental scanning to identify external influences on demand. These create demand trajectories for each of three procedures that are used with discrete-event simulation to inform strategic planning for endoscopic diagnostic services. The study involved collaboration with a major Healthcare Trust in England, and demonstrates the applicability of our methodology to support strategic change at the regional service level by aligning external demand with internal resource planning.