Regional Variation in Strategic Positional Rivalries
Regional Variation in Strategic Positional Rivalries
复制标题
战略地位竞争的地区差异
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-99-0557-7_4
复制
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sakuwa Kentaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee Chia-yi;Tominaga Yasutaka;Sakuwa Kentaro
本章探讨了地区在冲突与和平中的差异，并特别关注了位置竞争的作用-国际体系中位置的战略竞争。然而，与空间/领土竞争相比，对位置竞争动态的系统研究较少。更重要的是，在国际关系的实证文献中，位置竞争的存在与冲突与和平中的区域差异之间的关系并没有得到充分的分析。为什么有些地区有位置竞争，而另一些地区没有？此外，是什么让现有的位置竞争更容易引发战争和冲突？本章首先探讨位置竞争在时间和空间上的分布。一些地区的国家，如中东和北非（MENA）、东亚、北美和南亚，特别积极地发展竞争关系。然后，本章对两个主要假设进行了实证评估。首先，在有大国的地区，位置竞争可能会发展。与空间/领土问题不同，位置问题与域外野心密切相关，即在国家近邻之外发挥影响力。当国家在一个地理区域内足够强大时，就有可能出现位置竞争发展的倾向。其次，当该地区不存在明确的等级结构时，位置竞争往往会产生公开的冲突。当该地区缺乏无可争议的霸权秩序时——特别是当该地区的影响力在多个大国之间争夺时——对有影响力地位的竞争很可能升级为冲突，这既是因为各国更愿意用武力挑战现状，也是因为不确定性为冲突创造了更大的机会。本文对1816年至2010年的战略竞争数据和战争冲突相关数据进行了一系列实证分析，以检验这些命题。本章最后对战争与和平的区域差异的原因进行了分析。
This chapter explores how regions differ in conflict and peace with a special focus on the role of positional rivalries—strategic rivalries over positions in the international system. Compared to spatial/territorial rivalries, however, the dynamics of positional rivalries have been less systematically examined. More importantly, the relationship between the presence of positional rivalry and regional variation in conflict and peace has not been fully analyzed in the empirical international relations literature. Why do some regions have positional rivalries while others have few? Also, what makes existing positional rivalries more prone to wars and conflicts? This chapter begins by exploring the distribution of positional rivalries across time and space. States in some regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), East Asia, North America, and South Asia, are especially active in developing rivalry relationships over positions. The chapter then empirically evaluates two major hypotheses. First, positional rivalries are likely to develop in regions with great powers. Unlike spatial/territorial issues, positional ones are closely related to extraterritorial ambitions to be influential beyond the state’s immediate neighborhood. The propensity for positional rivalry development is likely when states are powerful enough in a geographic area. Second, positional rivalries tend to generate overt conflicts when a clear hierarchical structure does not exist in the region. When the region lacks an undisputed hegemonic order—especially when the regional influence is contested among multiple powers—competition over the influential position is likely to escalate into clashes both because states are more willing to challenge the status quo by force and because uncertainties create a greater opportunity for conflict. A set of empirical analyses drawing on strategic rivalries data and the Correlates of War conflict data from 1816 to 2010 are conducted to test these propositions. The chapter concludes with implications for the causes of regional variation in war and peace.