Different Words, Same Song: Advice for Substantively Interpreting Duration Models
Different Words, Same Song: Advice for Substantively Interpreting Duration Models
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不同的词，同一首歌：对持续时间模型进行实质性解释的建议
DOI：
10.1017/s104909651900060x
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shawna K. Metzger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Benjamin T. Jones;Shawna K. Metzger
摘要 在 Box-Steffensmeier 和 Jones（2004 年）十多年后，持续时间模型在政治学中的使用持续增长。然而，关于这些模型的一些常见误解仍然存在。为了提高学者对久期模型的使用和解释，我们指出它们是回归模型的一种，因此遵循与其他更常用的回归模型相同的规则。在本文中，我们提出了四个格言作为指导。我们调查了各种持续时间模型解释策略，并将它们分为四类，这是其他地方没有出现的重要组织活动。然后我们讨论这些策略的优点和缺点，并指出从技术角度来看所有策略都是正确的。然而，出于非技术原因，某些策略比其他策略更有意义，这最终为最佳实践提供了信息。
ABSTRACT The use of duration models in political science continues to grow, more than a decade after Box-Steffensmeier and Jones (2004). However, several common misconceptions about the models still persist. To improve scholars’ use and interpretation of duration models, we point out that they are a type of regression model and therefore follow the same rules as other more commonly used regression models. In this article, we present four maxims as guidelines. We survey the various duration model interpretation strategies and group them into four categories, which is an important organizational exercise that does not appear elsewhere. We then discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these strategies, noting that all are correct from a technical perspective. However, some strategies make more sense than others for nontechnical reasons, which ultimately informs best practices.