Bicycle Accident Risk Factors for Different Age Groups in Nagoya, Japan
Bicycle Accident Risk Factors for Different Age Groups in Nagoya, Japan
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/03611981221143378
复制
发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Meilan Jiang;Hitomi Sato;Xiaoshu Diao;Ghasak I.M.A. Mothafer;Toshiyuki Yamamoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meilan Jiang;Hitomi Sato;Xiaoshu Diao;Ghasak I.M.A. Mothafer;Toshiyuki Yamamoto
本研究在交通分析区层面，探讨影响不同年龄组别自行车事故的因素。骑自行车的人被分为四个年龄组：儿童、青年、成人和老年人。为了适应这些年龄组外生因素影响的潜在变化，我们使用了多元泊松-伽马混合模型。所建立的模型不仅考虑了未观测因素的异质性和过度离散性，而且考虑了各区域年龄组间协方差的差异。本研究中考虑的区域层面变量包括社会人口特征、社会经济特征、建成环境、道路网络特征和交通特征。该模型是根据2011年日本名古屋的自行车事故数据估算的。估计结果澄清了解释变量对各自年龄组的影响。儿童往往在他们居住的区域发生更多的事故，而年轻人和成年人群体在有很多公司的区域发生更多的事故。所有年龄段的人都更容易在有许多商店的地区发生事故。老年人受自行车出行次数及其空间溢出效应的影响较大，是各年龄段中最容易发生自行车事故的人群。本研究结果可协助决策者作出积极的决策，以改善自行车安全。
This study investigates which factors can influence bicycle accidents for a variety of age groups at the traffic analysis zone level. The cyclists were divided into four age groups: child, young, adult, and elderly. To accommodate for the potential variation in the influence of exogenous factors for these age groups, we utilized the multivariate Poisson gamma mixture model. The formulated model not only incorporates the heterogeneity and over-dispersion of the unobserved factors but also allows for the variance of the covariance between the age groups among the zones. The zone-level variables considered in this study include sociodemographic characteristics, socioeconomic characteristics, the built environment, road network characteristics, and traffic characteristics. The model was estimated using bicycle accident data for the year 2011 in Nagoya, Japan. The estimated results clarify the impacts of the explanatory variables for the respective age groups. Children tend to experience more accidents in their residential zones, while the young and adult age groups have more accidents in zones that have many companies. All age groups are more likely to have accidents in the area of many shops. The elderly group is greatly affected by both the number of bicycle trips and its spatial spillover effect, implying that they are most prone to bicycle accidents among all age groups. The findings of this research can assist decision-makers in making proactive decisions to improve bicycle safety.