Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
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DOI：
10.1038/nature01675
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发表时间：
2003-05-29
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Cai, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kalnay, E;Cai, M
对气候最重要的人为影响是温室气体的排放(1)和土地利用的变化，例如城市化和农业(2)。但很难将这两种影响分开，因为两者都会增加日平均表面温度(3,4)。通过比较城市与周边农村地区的观测结果来估计城市化的影响，但根据是否使用人口数据（5）或卫星夜光测量（6-8）来对城市和农村地区进行分类（7,8），结果存在显着差异。在这里，我们利用美国大陆观测到的地表温度趋势与通过对过去 50 年全球天气重新分析确定的地表温度重建的相应趋势（对地表观测不敏感）之间的差异来估计土地利用变化对地表变暖的影响。我们的结果表明，观察到的昼夜温度范围下降的一半是由于城市和其他土地利用的变化。此外，我们对土地利用变化导致的地表平均每世纪变暖 0.27 摄氏度的估计至少是之前仅基于城市化的估计的两倍(7,8)。
The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases(1) and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture(2). But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature(3,4). The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data(5) or satellite measurements of night light(6-8) are used to classify urban and rural areas(7,8). Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27degreesC mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone(7,8).