Nutrition and income from molluscs today imply vulnerability to ocean acidification tomorrow
Nutrition and income from molluscs today imply vulnerability to ocean acidification tomorrow
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00424.x
复制
发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Doney, Scott C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooley, Sarah R.;Lucey, Noelle;Doney, Scott C.
人类工业活动产生的大气二氧化碳（CO2）排放正在导致海水化学的逐步改变，称为海洋酸化，自工业革命以来，海水pH值和碳酸根离子浓度显着降低。许多海洋生物，如软体动物和珊瑚，利用碳酸根离子建造硬壳和骨骼，它们对海洋酸化表现出负面的整体反应。这增加了其他慢性和急性环境压力，并促使人们远离富含钙化物的社区。在这项研究中，我们研究了海洋酸化对全球软体动物产量的可能影响，通过研究目前的生产，消费和出口，并将这些数据与当前和未来的海洋表面化学预测耦合的气候-海洋模型（社区气候系统3.1; CCSM 3）。我们确定的过渡十年时，未来的海洋化学将明显不同于今天（2010年），当软体动物的收获水平类似于目前不能保证，如果目前的海洋化学是一个重要的决定因素，今天的软体动物生产。我们通过比较营养和经济对软体动物产量的依赖，整体社会适应性以及过渡十年之前的时间来评估国家对海洋酸化驱动的软体动物产量下降的脆弱性。预计个别国家的过渡十年将发生在2010年后的1050年。因此，适应性差、营养或经济上高度依赖软体动物、迅速接近过渡期或人口迅速增长的国家最容易受到海洋酸化导致的软体动物捕捞量减少的影响。这几十年的过渡期表明，各国应该尽快实施战略，例如增加适应性物种的水产养殖，以帮助维持目前的人均软体动物产量。
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human industrial activities are causing a progressive alteration of seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, which has decreased seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration markedly since the Industrial Revolution. Many marine organisms, like molluscs and corals, build hard shells and skeletons using carbonate ions, and they exhibit negative overall responses to ocean acidification. This adds to other chronic and acute environmental pressures and promotes shifts away from calcifier-rich communities. In this study, we examine the possible implications of ocean acidification on mollusc harvests worldwide by examining present production, consumption and export and by relating those data to present and future surface ocean chemistry forecast by a coupled climate-ocean model (Community Climate System 3.1; CCSM3). We identify the transition decade when future ocean chemistry will distinctly differ from that of today (2010), and when mollusc harvest levels similar to those of the present cannot be guaranteed if present ocean chemistry is a significant determinant of todays mollusc production. We assess nations vulnerability to ocean acidification-driven decreases in mollusc harvests by comparing nutritional and economic dependences on mollusc harvests, overall societal adaptability, and the amount of time until the transition decade. Projected transition decades for individual countries will occur 1050 years after 2010. Countries with low adaptability, high nutritional or economic dependence on molluscs, rapidly approaching transition decades or rapidly growing populations will therefore be most vulnerable to ocean acidification-driven mollusc harvest decreases. These transition decades suggest how soon nations should implement strategies, such as increased aquaculture of resilient species, to help maintain current per capita mollusc harvests.