Estimation of the serial interval of influenza.
Estimation of the serial interval of influenza.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e31819d1092
复制
发表时间：
2009-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Leung GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cowling BJ;Fang VJ;Riley S;Malik Peiris JS;Leung GM
人类流感感染的临床发作连续间隔（索引病例和继发病例中症状发作之间的时间）的估计值用于为公共卫生政策提供信息，并构建流感传播的数学模型。我们估计了实验室确认的流感在家庭中传播的连续间隔。索引病例在向初级卫生保健中心报告症状后招募。对他们的家庭成员进行了多次家访。假设威布尔模型并考虑我们田间研究设计中固有的选择偏倚，我们使用14对感染者/受感染者的发病时间估计平均序列间隔为3.6天（95%置信区间= 2.9-4.3天），标准差为1.6天。流感的家庭连续间隔可能比以前估计的要长。根据所有社区环境中的传播情况，对完整的连续间隔进行研究是一个优先事项。
Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households. Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households were followed up with repeated home visits. Assuming a Weibull model and accounting for selection bias inherent in our field study design, we used symptom-onset times from 14 pairs of infector/infectee to estimate a mean serial interval of 3.6 days (95% confidence interval = 2.9–4.3 days), with standard deviation 1.6 days. The household serial interval of influenza may be longer than previously estimated. Studies of the complete serial interval, based on transmission in all community contexts, are a priority.