A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines
A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.003
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发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Hunt, Tim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Batstone, Crispian;Lawless, Mark;Hunt, Tim
风暴潮的影响对世界海岸线构成越来越大的风险。沿海规划者需要准确估计洪水风险，以便提供适当的防御措施。因此，需要一种可靠的方法，以高空间分辨率估计沿着的极端海平面概率。本文介绍了一种新的方法来估计这些概率，应用到英国海岸线。该方法包括两个组成部分：极端海平面的估计应用新开发的统计方法，称为斜浪涌联合概率法，验潮记录，并使用后报海平面动态插值这些估计复杂的海岸线周围。斜波参数是一个更可靠的指标，气象对海平面的影响比非潮汐剩余的联合概率方法，如以前在英国使用的，该方法已被应用到英国海岸线提供一个数据库的极端海平面概率为英格兰和威尔士的环境署和苏格兰环境保护局。该数据库将用于为海岸防御战略、洪水测绘和预测提供信息，并支持政策、实施和业务决策。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The impacts of storm surges represent an increasing risk to the world's coastlines. Coastal planners require accurate estimates of flood risk in order to provide suitable defensive measures. Therefore a reliable methodology is required for the estimation of extreme sea-level probabilities at high spatial resolution along coastlines. This paper describes a new method for estimating these probabilities, with application to the UK coastline. The method consists of two components: the estimation of extreme sea-levels by applying a newly developed statistical method, termed the Skew Surge Joint Probability Method, with tide gauge records, and the use of hindcast sea-levels to dynamically interpolate these estimates around complex coastlines. The skew surge parameter is a more reliable indicator of meteorological impacts on sea-level than the non-tidal residual used in the Revised Joint Probability Method, as previously used in the United Kingdom.The method has been applied to the UK coastline to provide a database of extreme sea-level probabilities for the Environment Agency for England and Wales and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. The database will be used to inform coastal defense strategy, flood mapping and forecasting and to support policy, implementation and operational decision-making. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.