Geospatial and temporal estimation of climatic, end-use demands, and socioeconomic drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector in Ecuador
Geospatial and temporal estimation of climatic, end-use demands, and socioeconomic drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector in Ecuador
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enconman.2022.115629
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发表时间：
2022-05-05
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Hawkes, Adam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moya, Diego;Copara, Dennis;Hawkes, Adam
人们普遍认为，住宅部门能源消耗的驱动因素是环境温度、能源需求、人口密度和社会经济条件。然而，文献中没有研究评估一个区域或国家这些驱动因素的时空分布。能源转型的决策过程将通过使用地理空间分辨和时间明确的能源消费驱动因素得到加强。本研究以高时空分辨率对2010年至2020年期间厄瓜多尔住宅部门能源消费的气候、最终用途需求和社会经济驱动因素进行了估计。这项研究使用公开的数据集来计算厄瓜多尔住宅部门的七个能源消耗驱动因素：（1）1平方公里分辨率下校准的网格化人口密度;（2）1公里分辨率下验证的网格化空间供暖需求;（3）1公里分辨率下验证的网格化空间制冷需求;（4）1公里分辨率下验证的网格化水供暖需求;（5）以1公里（2）分辨率标定的网格化国内生产总值;（6）以1公里（2）分辨率标定的网格化人均国内生产总值;（7）城市一级标定的区域人类发展指数。考虑了在10年的范围内以高空间分辨率对整个国家的驱动因素进行分类。最终的高1 km（2）分辨率结果可用于评估长期规划方面的不同能源政策，以及能源系统和脱碳途径的技术经济建模。
It is widely acknowledged that the drivers for energy consumption in the residential sector are ambient temperature, energy demand, population density, and socio-economic conditions. However, there are no studies in the literature assessing the temporal and spatial distribution of these drivers for a region or country. The decision-making process of the energy transition will be enhanced by using geospatial-resolved and temporal explicit energy consumption drivers. This study estimates the climatic, end-use demands, and socio-economic drivers of energy consumption in the residential sector of Ecuador at a high spatio-temporal resolution between 2010 and 2020. This research uses publicly available datasets to calculate seven energy consumption drivers in the residential sector of Ecuador: (1) calibrated gridded population density at 1 km2 resolution; (2) validated gridded space heating demand at 1 km(2) resolution; (3) validated gridded space cooling demand at 1 km(2) resolution; (4) validated gridded water heating demand at 1 km(2) resolution; (5) calibrated gridded gross domestic product at 1 km(2) resolution; (6) calibrated gridded gross domestic product per capita at 1 km(2) resolution; and (7) calibrated regional human development index, at city level. Disaggregation of the drivers at a high spatial resolution for the entire country in a range of 10 years was considered. The final high-1 km(2) resolution results can be used for the evaluation of different energy policies in terms of long-term planning and in technoeconomic modelling of energy systems and decarbonisation pathways.