Neglected issues in using weather and climate information in ecology and biogeography
Neglected issues in using weather and climate information in ecology and biogeography
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12527
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Willis, Stephen G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baker, David J.;Hartley, Andrew J.;Willis, Stephen G.
人为的气候变化已经在影响生态系统。了解生物如何应对天气（短期）和气候（长期）的变化，以及气候变化对人口和生态系统的影响，是研究的重点。适当利用关于过去和潜在未来天气和气候条件的信息对此类研究至关重要，但很少充分考虑到这些信息的不确定性和偏差，这对评估气候变化对保护生物多样性的潜在影响产生了重要影响。在这里，我们强调了关于天气和气候信息在生态和生物地理学研究中的主要应用的三个重要的被忽视的问题。这包括：(1)与历史天气和气候信息有关的不确定性；(2)一般环流模式（GCM）模拟未来气候条件集合的选择；(3)将GCM模拟降尺度到生态相关空间尺度的不确定性和假设。总的来说，为了改善生态研究中天气和气候信息的使用，我们建议生态学家必须：(1)使用适合其预期目的的天气和气候产品；(2)探讨这些产品的不确定性对生态结论的影响；(3)寻求生态和气候研究的更大整合，以创造既反映生态学家的要求又反映气候学局限性的产品。这将使我们能够更有效地研究生态系统对未来气候变化的可能反应。
Anthropogenic climate change is already impacting ecological systems. Understanding how organisms respond to weather (short-term) and climate (long-term) variability, and the population and ecosystem-wide consequences of climate change, is a research priority. The appropriate use of information on past and potential future weather and climate conditions is crucial for such research, but uncertainties and biases in this information are seldom given full consideration, with important consequences for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the conservation of biodiversity. Here, we highlight three important neglected issues pertaining to the major applications of weather and climate information in ecological and biogeographical studies. These are as follows: (1) the uncertainty associated with historical weather and climate information; (2) the selection of ensembles of simulated future climate conditions derived from general circulation models (GCM); and (3) the uncertainty and assumptions associated with downscaling GCM simulations to ecologically relevant spatial scales. Broadly, in order to improve the use of weather and climate information in ecological studies, we propose that ecologists must: (1) use weather and climate products that are appropriate for their intended purpose; (2) explore the consequences of uncertainty in these products for ecological conclusions; and (3) seek greater integration of ecological and climate research to create products that reflect both the requirements of ecologists and the limits of climatology. This will enable more effective research into the likely responses of ecological systems to future climate change.