Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs
Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs
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DOI：
10.1080/09640560903083715
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
West, Carol Taylor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Godschalk, David R.;Rose, Adam;West, Carol Taylor
减灾规划者声称，有远见的当前行动和投资会产生重大的未来效益。然而，他们很难支持他们的主张，因为以前他们的证据通常来自个别案例研究。选民和决策者往往持怀疑态度，认为个别案件要么不适用于他们的情况，要么不是随机挑选出来支持某一特定观点的。企业需要基于大量经验的客观证据来支持缓解措施。这就是美国最近一项研究的独特贡献，该研究发现，在三个联邦自然灾害缓解拨款计划（减灾拨款计划，项目影响和洪水缓解援助计划）中花费的每一美元平均为社会节省了4美元，避免了未来的损失。这项研究以社区评价补充了综合效益-成本分析，并就规划人员如何在极端事件面前提高社区的长期复原力提出了见解。对减灾规划者和决策者来说，这方面的宝贵经验教训是：需要考虑各种各样的损失，定性分析与定量分析相结合的重要性，对大量项目的结果求平均值的价值，以及需要更明确地解决社会问题和数据收集问题，以减少脆弱性，提高科普二十一世纪灾害的复原力。
Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.