A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions
A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions
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DOI：
10.1007/s10668-013-9503-8
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发表时间：
2014-06
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Tokimatsu;Rieko Yasuoka;M. Nishio;K. Ueta
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作者：
K. Tokimatsu;Rieko Yasuoka;M. Nishio;K. Ueta
本文开发了一种方法来预测真实储蓄（GS）的未来路径，有和没有二氧化碳（CO2）排放限制。一般事务计算需要影子价格，这可以内生地确定模型中的变量和约束。然而，在“一切照旧”模型（BAU）的情况下，计算没有约束的GS所需的影子价格理论上为零。本研究得出的影子价格需要衡量GS的BAU情况下，作为一个函数的几个变量，在最佳（经济有效）的情况下。该函数是从具有环境约束的模型中内生获得的变量估计的。随后，利用该函数计算了有和无CO2约束的影子价格，并根据Arrow等人的两种方法计算了GS的未来路径，成功地估计了GS（或GSnt;然而，在一切照旧的情况下，随着人口和技术的变化，一般服务（或一般服务监测）措施在很大程度上取决于，关于财富核算所考虑的时间跨度（截断年份）和估算所用的阿罗论文的核算方法。在某些情况下，特别是根据Arrow在2004年的论文中使用的方法，在财富核算中使用调整后的消费，当考虑到全要素生产率的变化时，GS（或GSnt）的符号从负值变为正值。在根据全球服务（或全球Snt）指标衡量某一特定路径的可持续性（或不可持续性）之前，应探讨这些方面。
This paper has developed a method for forecasting the future paths of genuine savings (GS) with and without carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions constraints. GS calculations require shadow prices, which can be endogenously determined for variables and constraints in a model. However, in case of a ‘business as usual’ model (BAU), the shadow prices required for calculating GS without constraints show theoretically zero. This research derives the shadow prices required to measure GS for the BAU case as a function of several variables available in the optimal (economically efficient) case. This function is estimated from endogenously obtained variables from a model with environmental constraints. Subsequently, this function is used to calculate shadow prices with and without CO2constraints, which are further employed to compute future paths of GS according to two methods applied in the papers by Arrow et al. We successfully estimated GS (or GSnt; GS with changes in population and technology) under the BAU case, however, suggest that GS (or GSnt) measures depend, to a great extent, on the time span under consideration (truncation year) for wealth accounting and the accounting methods by Arrows’ papers used for its estimation. In some cases, especially according to the methodology used by Arrow’s paper in 2004 using adjusted consumption in wealth accounting, the sign of GS (or GSnt) changes from negative to positive when changes in total factor productivity are taken into consideration. These aspects should be explored before measuring (un)sustainability of a particular path based on the GS (or GSnt) indicator.