Paradigm Shifts on Flood Risk Management in Japan: Detecting Triggers of Design Flood Revisions in the Modern Era
Paradigm Shifts on Flood Risk Management in Japan: Detecting Triggers of Design Flood Revisions in the Modern Era
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DOI：
10.1029/2017wr022509
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Oki, Taikan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nakamura, Shinichiro;Oki, Taikan
洪水风险管理（FRM）在人类历史上经历了多次范式转变。设计洪水是现代水利枢纽设计中最重要的要素之一，它反映了水利枢纽的防护标准或安全水平。它经过历史性的修订和增加，以反映每个时代的社会水文状况。通过这项研究，我们的目的是确定这些变化的FRM及其原因（在日本现代社会的到来），重点是设计洪水修改触发109个流域。我们通过对政府报告（和其他历史资源）的批判性审查，提取了所有这些触发因素，然后试图根据这些变化识别并将这一时期划分为几个时代。此外，我们进行了定量趋势分析的几个社会水文变量，有助于（或折射）的变化，并进行了定性分析，其社会水文背景。修订触发因素可以分为五类：国家政策变化、特大洪水、大坝建设、经济增长和其他。从触发因素的转换来看，日本近代FRM史可分为三个时期：第一时期：1910-1935年，社会变革时期;第二时期：1935-1970年，应对特大洪水时期;第三时期：1970-2010年，应对经济增长时期。由于社会水文事件和背景的变化，每个时代的范式都发生了变化。结果表明，日本的FRM范式已经从绿色社会转向技术社会，在人-技术-洪水的演变。
Flood risk management (FRM) has repeatedly evolved through paradigm shifts in human history. In modern FRM, a design flood, which reflects the protection standard or safety level of the FRM, is one of the most important elements. It has been historically revised and increased to reflect the sociohydrological situation of each era. Through this study we aimed to identify these changes to FRM and their reasons (after the advent of the modern society in Japan), focusing on the design flood revision triggers in 109 river basins. We extracted all these triggers through critical reviews of governmental reports (and other historical resources), then tried to identify and divide this time period into a few eras, based on these shifts. In addition, we performed a quantitative trend analysis of several sociohydrological variables that contributed to (or refracted) the shifts and conducted a qualitative analysis of their sociohydrological backgrounds. The revision triggers could be classified into five categories: national policy change, mega flood, dam construction, economic growth, and others. From the transition of triggers, the Japanese modern history of FRM was divided into three eras: Era 1: 1910-1935, changing society, Era 2: 1935-1970, response to mega floods, and Era 3: 1970-2010, response to economic growth. The paradigms shifted in each era due to variations in both socio-hydrological events and backgrounds. The results showed that the Japanese FRM paradigm has shifted from green society to technological society, with respect to human-technology-flood evolution.