Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets
Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2750064
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Glaser;Zwetelina Iliewa;Martin Weber
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Glaser;Zwetelina Iliewa;Martin Weber
价格和回报是金融市场中提供信息和引发预期的另一种方式。但投资者是否以同样的方式看待价格和回报？我们提出了三项研究与科目具有不同的专业知识水平，信息量，和不同的激励计划。所有研究的结果都是一致的：要求受试者预测回报而不是价格会导致更高的期望，而向他们展示回报图表而不是价格图表会导致更低的期望。经验不是一个有用的补救措施，但认知反思减轻了格式变化的影响。
Prices and returns are alternative ways to present information and to elicit expectations in financial markets. But do investors think of prices and returns in the same way? We present three studies with subjects having various levels of expertise, amount of information, and different incentive schemes. The results are consistent across all studies: Asking subjects to forecast returns as opposed to prices results in higher expectations, whereas showing them return charts as opposed to price charts results in lower expectations. Experience is not a useful remedy but cognitive reflection mitigates the impact of format changes.